Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Alert

A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."